The beginning of a decade is about the time people make predictions for the next 10 years. I haven’t a clue what will happen, nobody does. What I do believe is that the next 10 years will not be the same as the last 10. We just don’t know in what way. The military actions last week highlight this.
For investors the best part of 2018 was that it ended. It was a rough year. The TSX was down 12%. The US markets faired a little better, down around 6% for the S&P 500. What will 2019 bring? The media likes predictions, but nobody actually knows. My guess is that given the dramatic out performance of U.S. markets over the past decade, things will normalize.
Value, Growth and FANG Stocks.
"Life is like a snowball. The important thing is finding wet snow and a really long hill." – Warren Buffett
Time is the most important factor in determining your dollar value returns over your investing lifetime. Getting started early will do wonders. I have attached a chart below showing the value of an investment portfolio at age 65 with different starting ages.
|Saving 10,000 per year||Starting at Age 45||Starting at Age 35||Starting at Age 25|
|6% rate of return||$367,856||$790,581||$1,547,620|
|8% rate of return||$457,620||$1,132,832||$2,590,565|
|10% rate of return||$572,750||$1,644,940||$4,425,925|
I haven’t provided a market commentary since mid-last year. Don’t worry, nothing big has happened in the world since then.
“Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.”
- Alice in Wonderland (Lewis Carroll)
A significant portion of the world’s governments are able to borrow money at negative interest rates. Approximately $7
There is a story about a father who on Christmas Eve fills his two son’s stockings with different gifts. In the first son’s stocking he placed a fancy gold watch, the second son’s stocking he filled with horse manure.
“The search for a scapegoat is the easiest of all hunting expeditions.”
― Dwight D. Eisenhower
October 2015 Newsletter (Click here to view PDF version)
September 2015 Newsletter (View in PDF)
"Don't try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top, it can't be done. Except by liars."
- Bernard Baruch (Successful speculator in around the turn of the 20th century)